The outside view — how long will it take to create a vaccine for Covid-19?

Inside view

Balance your bias with the outside view

How long will a Coronavirus (Covid-19) vaccine take

“GSK’s chief executive Emma Walmsley told the BBC that vaccines usually take a decade to develop and test. A plan to make a vaccine available in just 18 months was a huge acceleration of the normal process, she said.

There are more than 20 vaccines currently in development.

Sarah Gilbert, an Oxford University professor engaged in a separate search for a vaccine, said she was “80 per cent confident” her team’s development would work by autumn.”

“120 vaccines in development”

“The ebola vaccine, known as rVSV-ZEBOV was approved in 2019 after 5 years of research which began in 2014.

It remains the view of scientists advising the British Government and World Health Organisation that 12 to 18 months is an appropriate timeline for vaccine development.”

“While a final product that would be widely available is still a year or more away, the Novavax effort is one of many that is ready to be tested in people

“We’re all trying to do something which we have almost no precedents for, which is accelerating a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, who is a co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development at Baylor College of Medicine.”

Inside view — positives

  • Multiple companies are trying different vaccines, increasing the chances of one of them being successful.
  • The work on SARS which has some similarities with Covid-19 will give some companies a head start on creating a successful vaccine.
  • Money is being invested, a vaccine is a priority for the world.
  • Knowledge is being shared, this should speed up the process.
  • Red tape could be bypassed, stages skipped.
  • Production facilities can be created now before the vaccine is ready.

Outside view

  • It usually takes 10 years to create, produce and get a vaccine to the people.
  • No vaccine was created for SARS, indicating creating a vaccine won’t be straight forward.
  • Covid — 19 has mutated into two different strains and could mutate again, meaning a vaccine might not work on all strains.
  • Ebola vaccine took 5 years.

Other considerations

Hosk guess

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